Oil has captured much of the attention amid the conflict in the Middle East. While a limited number of tankers are transiting the region, the Strait of Hormuz is largely blocked, disrupting nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

How long the war might last is not clear, but its effects are being felt in global energy markets. Oil moves easily across borders, which means supply disruptions quickly lead to higher gasoline prices.

Against the backdrop of the war, the Federal Reserve met last week and decided to hold its key rate—the fed funds rate—unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. The decision was completely expected.

There are fears that higher prices will exacerbate inflation and hurt the economy, as cash that might have gone to other items will be diverted to the gas tank.

What is the efficient market theory? Textbooks have been written to fully explain the theory. But if we can sum it up in one sentence: Assets, such as stocks, reflect all publicly available information. It is a foundational principle of finance.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics published its final benchmark revisions covering employment during the 12‑month period between April 2024 and March 2025. The revisions showed that payrolls were revised lower by 898,000 jobs compared with the originally reported figures.

After leading markets for much of the past two years, AI, tech stocks, and software specifically, are losing leadership in early 2026, as investors rotate capital toward other sectors, including energy, industrials, and defensive sectors.

The so-called January Barometer holds that the market’s performance in January—measured by the S&P 500 Index—tends to foreshadow how stocks will perform during the year. Since 1970, January finished higher 33 times and fell 23 times, excluding this month’s increase of 1.37% (MarketWatch data, excludes reinvested dividends).

Much has been made of the sluggish hiring environment, but less attention has been paid to an important counterpoint: the persistently low level of layoffs. Figure 1 highlights the number of individuals who go online or head to their respective state’s unemployment office and file for benefits following a layoff.

Let’s review one narrow economic indicator that provides a useful, though not standalone, measure of the overall economy’s health. The US Census categorizes it as ‘food services and drinking places.’ That can best be described as restaurants and bars.