Mortgage rates have moved sharply higher in recent months, creating a noticeable headwind for homebuyers and homeowners looking to refinance.

Released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), September’s nonfarm payroll report came in lighter than expected, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly inched higher.

“Bond Selloff Deepens After 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2004,” declared Bloomberg News last week. CNBC echoed the sentiment with “10-Year Treasury Yield Rockets to 19-Year High.”

In his opening remarks in a speech last month at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Symposium, Fed Chief Kevin Warsh said, “(Event) planners have some recreation options lined up for later today.

First, let’s clarify that any attempt to predict the Federal Reserve’s actions this week is, at best, an educated guess. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a hawkish tone, and the odds of a quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate are 87%, according to the CME Group. It was 59% on September 4.

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by a much greater-than-expected 162,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

The graphic below compares the change in home prices, adjusted for inflation, for various US cities. For example, the average USA home price has topped inflation by 238% since 1948. Why has there been such a wide trajectory in prices, and why have they proven so persistent?

This year, the stock market has risen significantly. Lingering worries about oil prices, inflation, the war with Iran, and the possibility of an AI bubble haven’t subsided. But the economy is expanding, corporate profits have been strong, and the S&P 500 Index set a new high last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.

In a solid earnings season, we’d generally expect S&P 500 companies to deliver double-digit profit growth, meaning earnings growth of at least 10% versus a year ago (20% tops). That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but it provides a useful benchmark for evaluating the strength of a quarter.

“All hat and no cattle” is a traditional cowboy phrase—especially popular in Texas—describing someone who is basically a poser: plenty of talk, lots of sparkle, but little to back it up. It’s all talk and no action, and that’s the takeaway from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s second Fed meeting and subsequent press conference.

The trust fund that supports Social Security retirement benefits is projected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032. At that point, ongoing revenue from Social Security payroll taxes is expected to cover approximately 78% of scheduled retirement benefits.

Since the most recent market low at the end of March, semiconductors (microchips, commonly called chip stocks) have been a very popular trade. In less than three months, the PHLX Semiconductor Index has more than doubled—see Figure 1.