Prosperity Partners Blog
A Drama-Free Fed Meeting, Press Conference* and the Election
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in Q3, which was down from 3.0% in Q2.
A Robust GDP and Muddy Jobs Report
The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in Q3, which was down from 3.0% in Q2.
The Interest Rate Paradox
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, about 100,000 more than economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected. The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%.
Happy Birthday
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, about 100,000 more than economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected. The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%.
Job Growth Blows Past Expectations
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, about 100,000 more than economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected. The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%.
A Fed Rate Cut and Your Mortgage Rate
A recent online advertisement from a major bank read, “The Fed just lowered interest rates. Could refinancing save you money?” There is an implicit assumption in the ad that the Fed’s half-percentage point rate reduction brought about a significant drop in mortgage rates shortly following the decision.
Boom – Fed Opts for 50
On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis point (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) rate cut for the fed funds rate to 4.75 – 5.00%, its first reduction since 2020. The announcement marks the end of the most aggressive rate-hike cycle since 1980 when the Fed funds rate rose a whopping 11 percentage points (1,100 bps) in just 6 months.
A Green Light for the Fed – in Three Graphs
All indications point to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. What’s behind the Fed’s rationale? Let’s look at three key metrics. Aided by lower gasoline prices and stable prices for consumer goods, the rate of inflation has slowed dramatically.
August Melt-Up Follows Brief Meltdown
Market pullbacks are to be expected. They are incorporated into the financial plan. But like an unexpected traffic jam, they are exceedingly difficult to predict. Early August was one such event. The turbulence began at the end of July in the wake of seemingly minor news—the U.S. BLS reported another rise in the unemployment rate, which forced some investors to re-evaluate their view of a recession.
Then and Now
Overbuilding, speculation, and easy access to credit encouraged a housing boom and a bust in the 2000s. Sales cratered later in the decade, and along with it, prices tumbled. Today, housing sales have plummeted once again.
Powell’s Victory Lap (Sort Of)
Fed Chief Powell’s much-anticipated speech against the picturesque backdrop of the Grand Tetons in Jackson Hole, WY, virtually assures that the Fed will reduce interest rates next month. In a short 16-minute speech, Powell said the magic words. “The time has come for policy to adjust.
Economic Anxieties Subside
As expected, the Federal Reserve kept its key rate, the fed funds rate, unchanged at 5.25 – 5.50%. After holding the fed funds rate steady for a year, Fed Chief Jay Powell twice-mentioned that a September rate cut is on the table at his press conference.