Sep 26, 2022

FDP Special Market Commentary

We’re in a period of high market volatility and you may feel helpless to do anything but watch your hard earned portfolio decrease in value.

Although you might feel a high level of fear about entering the market with new funds, if you’re sitting on cash inflation may be working against you. Instead, there are two techniques that may provide you with a sense of control: “Build a Ladder” and “Buy the Dip.”

BUILD A LADDER
Sitting on the sidelines can be a costly mistake.  First, inflation erodes the buying power of cash.  With eight percent year over year inflation, that buying power is eroding at a faster rate than ever.   Consider building a ladder of fixed income securities that includes short term Treasuries, Corporate Bonds and Bank Certificates of Deposit.   Yields on short term treasuries are now over three percent and are considered to be the safest investment available (backed by the full faith and credit of the United States).  Divide your funds into four tranches that will have four different maturity dates.  For example, 90 days, 180 days, 270 days and finally one year.   Every ninety days you will have one fourth of your money become available to reinvest into the ladder or deploy into some other investment.

BUY THE DIP (AKA “A Reversal Strategy”)
Studies have shown that market timing does not work on a long-term consistent basis. In other words, the ability to buy stocks at the lowest price point and then sell at the highest price point and do it on a consistent basis just doesn’t work. Modern Portfolio Theory developed in the 1980’s concludes that investors would do better by allocating their assets across a wide array of investments and let the market performance come to you.  While this investment strategy is the backbone for most long-term investors, there’s another strategy called “Buy the Dip” that also has merit. According to research findings by Quantamental Research in March 2018, they conclude that, “A strategy of investing in securities that fell more than 10% relative to the broader market index, during a single day, significantly outperforms the index between 2002 and 2017 in the subsequent periods”.   Click here for the link to the research.

Down markets and high market volatility is upsetting to most investors, however, you can take some control by taking advantage of the two strategies above.  Please call or email me with your questions and comments.

Reproduction Prohibited without Express Permission. Copyright FDP Wealth Management. All rights reserved. Advisory Services offered through FDP Wealth Management, LLC, a state Registered Investment Adviser and Valmark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300, Akron, OH 44333-2431 800.765.5201 Prosperity Partners and FDP Wealth Management, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and Valmark Advisers, Inc. Prosperity Partners, FDP Wealth Management, LLC, ValMark Securities, Inc., Valmark Advisers Inc., and their representatives do not offer tax advice. You should consult your tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested directly in. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees, one cannot directly invest in an index. You should consult your tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. This information is provided by Financial Jumble, LLC. Financial Jumble, LLC is a separate entity from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

RELATED POSTS

Data Disconnect

Retailers are ringing up solid earnings, but consumer confidence surveys tell a different story, suggesting the mood is far from upbeat. This disconnect raises a big question: if shoppers are still buying, as we will highlight in a moment, why do they feel so uneasy about the economy?

Buyer’s Market – With Strings Attached

Redfin reported last week that sellers are grappling with the strongest buyer’s market since the real estate brokerage firm began compiling records back in 2013. Sellers now outnumber buyers by 37%.

Investors Unfazed by Shutdown

The government shutdown lasted from October 1 to November 12. It was the longest on record. During that period, the S&P 500 rose from 6,688.46 (September 30) to 6,850.92 (November 12), or an advance of 2.4%. As we’ve noted in prior shutdowns, investors typically ignore political drama.

The Job Market’s Missing Pulse

The government shutdown has been and will always be prominently featured in the 24-hour news cycle. Travelers are feeling it, furloughed federal employees wonder when they will receive their next paycheck, and even the housing market is affected as some buyers are left in limbo.

One Cut, Two Cut: The Fed’s Delicate Balancing Act

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%), but Fed Chief Jay Powell tempered market enthusiasm by signaling that a December cut is far from certain.