Quarterly Market Summary and Outlook – October 2018

First, let’s clarify that any attempt to predict the Federal Reserve’s actions this week is, at best, an educated guess. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a hawkish tone, and the odds of a quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate are 87%, according to the CME Group. It was 59% on September 4.

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by a much greater-than-expected 162,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

The graphic below compares the change in home prices, adjusted for inflation, for various US cities. For example, the average USA home price has topped inflation by 238% since 1948. Why has there been such a wide trajectory in prices, and why have they proven so persistent?

This year, the stock market has risen significantly. Lingering worries about oil prices, inflation, the war with Iran, and the possibility of an AI bubble haven’t subsided. But the economy is expanding, corporate profits have been strong, and the S&P 500 Index set a new high last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.

In a solid earnings season, we’d generally expect S&P 500 companies to deliver double-digit profit growth, meaning earnings growth of at least 10% versus a year ago (20% tops). That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but it provides a useful benchmark for evaluating the strength of a quarter.