Up or Down – Which Way From Here

Up or Down – Which Way From Here

Weekly Market Commentary Economic sentiment can shift on a dime. This year, terms like ‘soft landing (slowing growth, slowing inflation)’ and ‘hard landing (recession, slower inflation)’ have gotten the most play. Earlier in the year, a so-called ‘no-landing’ scenario...
Latest Inflation News Offers Some Encouragement

Latest Inflation News Offers Some Encouragement

Weekly Market Commentary The slowdown in the rate of inflation last month was aided by food and energy prices. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.1% in March versus February amid a 3.5% decline in energy prices and no change in food prices (U.S. Bureau of Labor...
Inflation – It Hasn’t Gone Away

Inflation – It Hasn’t Gone Away

Weekly Market Commentary Inflation was uppermost on the minds of investors, Fed officials, and policymakers until the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) forced price stability to play second fiddle to banking stability. The banking crisis has eased amid tentative...
A Dovish Rate Increase

A Dovish Rate Increase

Weekly Market Commentary The Federal Reserve raised its key lending rate, the fed funds rate, by 25 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) to a range of 4.75 – 5.00%, as most observers had expected. A few saw no change. Before the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), a...
Pandemic Distortions

Pandemic Distortions

Weekly Market Commentary The economic distortions tied to that pandemic and the government’s massive response to prop up the economy have been far-reaching. Before continuing, let’s look at some facts and definitions. Consumer spending accounts for 70% of the total...
The No-Landing Scenario

The No-Landing Scenario

Weekly Market Commentary Last year, the economy appeared to be headed toward one of two scenarios. There was a narrow path to what is called a ‘soft landing.’ A soft landing is a slowdown in economic growth that leads to a slowdown in inflation. It’s accomplished...