A Big Pile of Cash on the Sidelines

A Big Pile of Cash on the Sidelines

Weekly Market Commentary Recession fears are rampant. Interest rates are up, which discourages spending, and housing, a leading economic indicator, has fallen into a steep recession. Reported on Friday, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is...
A Soft Inflation Reading Fuels a Strong Rally

A Soft Inflation Reading Fuels a Strong Rally

Weekly Market Commentary October’s slower-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index fueled a 5.53% rise in the S&P 500 Index on Thursday, which was the 15th-best trading day since 1953 when the 5-day trading week began, according to Bespoke. Why the huge...
Quarterly Market Summary and Outlook – October 2022

Quarterly Market Summary and Outlook – October 2022

WIth another rocky quarter, equities continued their downhill slide with most equity indexes showing double-digit negative returns tear-to-date (YTD).  The first half of the quarter we saw a bear market rally in July and August only to watch the S&P 500 Index post...
Smaller Hikes but Longer to the Peak

Smaller Hikes but Longer to the Peak

Weekly Market Commentary Smaller hikes but longer to the peak. That was the message from Fed Chief Jay Powell after the Federal Reserve hiked the fed funds rate by 75 basis points (bp, 1 bp =0.01%) to a range of 3.75—4.00% on Wednesday. The Fed may dial back the size...
Recession Averted

Recession Averted

Weekly Market Commentary The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analyst reported that Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the largest measure of goods and services, expanded at an annualized pace of 2.6%, erasing the declines from Q1 and Q2—recession averted, for now. It’s...
Quarterly Market Summary and Outlook – October 2022

An Arcane Index Flashes a Warning

Weekly Market Commentary Every month, the Conference Board releases what’s called the Leading Economic Index, or the LEI. The LEI consists of 10 economic components, whose changes tend to precede what happens in the economy. The LEI has always turned lower before the...