Apr 8, 2024

No Matter How You Slice It and Dice It…

Weekly Market Commentary

The latest employment numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) point to a robust job market.

On Friday, the U.S. BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 303,000 in March, well ahead of expectations. It’s not simply March; growth has been above 250,000 for four months running. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February.

So far, Fed rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 appear to have done little to dampen economic activity.

Despite numerous headlines of tech sector layoffs, not many laid-off workers are filing for unemployment benefits.

Though the population is much larger today, claims are hovering near a level not seen since the early 1970s.

What does this tell us? Most firms want to retain workers. If sales flounder, employers lay off staff, and first-time claims for benefits rise. That’s not happening today.

And it’s not simply upbeat job growth or low layoffs, job openings remain elevated, too, and have stabilized at an elevated level over the last eight months.

Weekly Market Commentary

The latest employment numbers from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) point to a robust job market.

On Friday, the U.S. BLS reported that nonfarm payrolls rose 303,000 in March, well ahead of expectations. It’s not simply March; growth has been above 250,000 for four months running. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% in March from 3.9% in February.

So far, Fed rate hikes in 2022 and 2023 appear to have done little to dampen economic activity.

Despite numerous headlines of tech sector layoffs, not many laid-off workers are filing for unemployment benefits.

Though the population is much larger today, claims are hovering near a level not seen since the early 1970s.

Reproduction Prohibited without Express Permission. Copyright FDP Wealth Management. All rights reserved. Advisory Services offered through FDP Wealth Management, LLC, a state Registered Investment Adviser and Valmark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300, Akron, OH 44333-2431 800.765.5201 Prosperity Partners and FDP Wealth Management, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and Valmark Advisers, Inc. Prosperity Partners, FDP Wealth Management, LLC, ValMark Securities, Inc., Valmark Advisers Inc., and their representatives do not offer tax advice. You should consult your tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested directly in. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees, one cannot directly invest in an index. You should consult your tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. This information is provided by Financial Jumble, LLC. Financial Jumble, LLC is a separate entity from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

RELATED POSTS

Data Disconnect

Retailers are ringing up solid earnings, but consumer confidence surveys tell a different story, suggesting the mood is far from upbeat. This disconnect raises a big question: if shoppers are still buying, as we will highlight in a moment, why do they feel so uneasy about the economy?

Buyer’s Market – With Strings Attached

Redfin reported last week that sellers are grappling with the strongest buyer’s market since the real estate brokerage firm began compiling records back in 2013. Sellers now outnumber buyers by 37%.

Investors Unfazed by Shutdown

The government shutdown lasted from October 1 to November 12. It was the longest on record. During that period, the S&P 500 rose from 6,688.46 (September 30) to 6,850.92 (November 12), or an advance of 2.4%. As we’ve noted in prior shutdowns, investors typically ignore political drama.

The Job Market’s Missing Pulse

The government shutdown has been and will always be prominently featured in the 24-hour news cycle. Travelers are feeling it, furloughed federal employees wonder when they will receive their next paycheck, and even the housing market is affected as some buyers are left in limbo.

One Cut, Two Cut: The Fed’s Delicate Balancing Act

The Federal Reserve delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%), but Fed Chief Jay Powell tempered market enthusiasm by signaling that a December cut is far from certain.