Quarterly Market Summary and Outlook – October 2018

To virtually no one’s surprise, the Federal Reserve slashed the target on its key interest rate—the fed funds rate—at the conclusion of its meeting on Wednesday. The only question regarding the decision was whether the Fed would cut by a quarter point (25 basis points [bp]; 1 bp = 0.01%) or 50 bp. They opted for 25 bp and a new range of 4.00-4.25%.

The only thing that might have been standing in the way between the Federal Reserve and a rate cut this week was last Thursday’s release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). While the inflation figures weren’t particularly soft, August’s data didn’t reflect a sharp rise in prices either, all but guaranteeing that the Fed will move at Wednesday’s meeting.

For starters, the title is a simplified five-word summary of the labor market. Recall that last week, we explored the low level of layoffs. This week, we shift the focus to hiring trends. But first, let’s take a closer look at the numbers from the latest jobs report.

Initial claims for unemployment insurance measure the number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time. The data is released weekly, making it one of the most up-to-date indicators of labor market conditions. It is a key economic indicator because it offers a real-time snapshot of the health of the labor market.

Last week was packed with economic developments, as reports poured in from all directions. We saw the release of second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures, the broadest measure of goods and services produced, alongside the July jobs report.