CONTACT   CLIENT PORTAL

FDP Wealth Management

Apr 28, 2016

FDP Quarterly Market Commentary

Market Review Q4 ’15

 

An end of January headline from Bloomberg News summed it up well—Stocks Post Worst January Since 2009. Th­e New Year definitely roared like a lion, and not in a favorable way. For those who gave in to their emotions and dumped stocks in January, the reversal to the upside in February proved costly. By the time the seven-year anniversary of the 2008-09 Bear Market lows rolled around in March, a solid stock market recovery was well underway. Overall, 2016 has been a favorable market for globally diversified strategic portfolios.…READ ON

U.S. stocks continue to carry a relatively high correlation to oil prices. Let me bring back a recent chart on oil and stocks. Figure 1 graphically illustrates the close relationship between what’s been happening in the oil patch and the performance in the broad-based S&P 500 Index.…READ ON

After raising rates once at the end of 2015, investment markets largely rejected the expectation that the Fed would continue to raise rates early in 2016. Instead, the Fed turned dovish by the end of the quarter. At its March meeting, Fed officials projected just two rate hikes for the remainder of the year, down from four projected hikes at the December meeting. Assuming the Fed follows through, it would put the fed funds rate at 0.75–1.0%, which is up from the current range of 0.25–0.50%.…READ ON

 

BACK TO PROSPERITY PARTNERS BLOG

Reproduction Prohibited without Express Permission. Copyright FDP Wealth Management. All rights reserved. Advisory Services offered through FDP Wealth Management, LLC, a state Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through Valmark Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC | 130 Springside Drive Suite 300 Akron, OH 44333-2431 | 800.765.5201. FDP Wealth Management, LLC is a separate entity from Valmark Securities, Inc. If you do not want to receive further editions of this weekly newsletter, please contact me at (949) 855-4337 or e-mail me at info@fdpwm.com or write me at 8841 Research Drive, Suite 100, Irvine, CA 92618. FDP Wealth Management, LLC, Valmark Securities, Inc. and their representatives do not offer tax or legal advice. You should consult your tax or legal professional regarding your individual circumstances. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested directly in. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

BACK TO BLOG

RELATED POSTS

Job Growth Blows Past Expectations

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the economy added a whopping 254,000 jobs in September, about 100,000 more than economists surveyed by Bloomberg had projected. The unemployment rate, expected to hold steady at 4.2%, slipped to 4.1%.

READ MORE

A Fed Rate Cut and Your Mortgage Rate

A recent online advertisement from a major bank read, “The Fed just lowered interest rates. Could refinancing save you money?” There is an implicit assumption in the ad that the Fed’s half-percentage point rate reduction brought about a significant drop in mortgage rates shortly following the decision.

READ MORE

Boom – Fed Opts for 50

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced a 50-basis point (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) rate cut for the fed funds rate to 4.75 – 5.00%, its first reduction since 2020. The announcement marks the end of the most aggressive rate-hike cycle since 1980 when the Fed funds rate rose a whopping 11 percentage points (1,100 bps) in just 6 months.

READ MORE

A Green Light for the Fed – in Three Graphs

All indications point to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this week. What’s behind the Fed’s rationale? Let’s look at three key metrics. Aided by lower gasoline prices and stable prices for consumer goods, the rate of inflation has slowed dramatically.

READ MORE

August Melt-Up Follows Brief Meltdown

Market pullbacks are to be expected. They are incorporated into the financial plan. But like an unexpected traffic jam, they are exceedingly difficult to predict. Early August was one such event. The turbulence began at the end of July in the wake of seemingly minor news—the U.S. BLS reported another rise in the unemployment rate, which forced some investors to re-evaluate their view of a recession.

READ MORE