author avatar
Mark Chandik

Feb 17, 2026

Revisiting 2025 Employment

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics published its final benchmark revisions covering employment during the 12‑month period between April 2024 and March 2025. The revisions showed that payrolls were revised lower by 898,000 jobs compared with the originally reported figures.

The 898,000 reflects the total number of jobs overstated once the BLS incorporated more complete Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages payroll-tax data. These counts are derived from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file.

In September, the preliminary benchmark estimate had suggested a larger reduction of 911,000 jobs, meaning the final revision was slightly smaller.

The September estimate did not include monthly breakdown estimates. Monthly revisions totaling 898,000 were incorporated in the January release.

Separately, the BLS also updates the methodology it uses to estimate monthly business openings and closures. These adjustments flow through to the employment data, impacting the reported job numbers for the remainder of 2025, April through December.

What does this look like graphically? The economy created fewer jobs than initially reported.

In summary, instead of 584,000 net new jobs in 2025, payrolls were revised to just 181,000.

Notably, the engine of job growth is the healthcare sector, which added 693,000 jobs last year. Outside of healthcare, private sector employment declined.

With all of this in mind, let’s briefly review January’s jobs data from the BLS.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by a better-than-expected 130,000, with jobs in the private sector rising by 172,000.
As we saw last year, healthcare continues to play an outsized role, with a 124,000 increase.

Additionally, the unemployment rate fell from 4.4% in December to 4.3% in January.

All in all, January’s data was a mix of good news and bad news. Payrolls increased, and the unemployment rate fell, but one industry fueled most of January’s job growth.

Elsewhere, the stock market was closed on February 16 in observance of Presidents’ Day.

Originally established in 1879 to honor George Washington’s birthday and still officially called Washington’s Birthday, it has since grown into a celebration recognizing all American presidents and their contributions to the nation.

Today, Presidents’ Day serves as a moment to reflect on the country’s history, leadership, and the ideals that have shaped the United States.

author avatar
Mark Chandik

Reproduction Prohibited without Express Permission. Copyright FDP Wealth Management. All rights reserved. Advisory Services offered through FDP Wealth Management, LLC, a state Registered Investment Adviser and Valmark Advisers, Inc. a SEC Registered Investment Advisor. Securities offered through ValMark Securities, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. 130 Springside Drive, Suite 300, Akron, OH 44333-2431 800.765.5201 Prosperity Partners and FDP Wealth Management, LLC are separate entities from ValMark Securities, Inc. and Valmark Advisers, Inc. Prosperity Partners, FDP Wealth Management, LLC, ValMark Securities, Inc., Valmark Advisers Inc., and their representatives do not offer tax advice. You should consult your tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested directly in. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Indices are unmanaged and do not incur fees, one cannot directly invest in an index. You should consult your tax professional regarding your individual circumstances. This information is provided by Financial Jumble, LLC. Financial Jumble, LLC is a separate entity from ValMark Securities, Inc. and ValMark Advisers, Inc.

RELATED POSTS

A Hotter August CPI Builds Rate Hike Momentum

First, let’s clarify that any attempt to predict the Federal Reserve’s actions this week is, at best, an educated guess. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has struck a hawkish tone, and the odds of a quarter-point increase in the fed funds rate are 87%, according to the CME Group. It was 59% on September 4.

Behind the Jobs Report

On Friday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that nonfarm payrolls rose by a much greater-than-expected 162,000 jobs in August. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.1%.

Location Location Location

The graphic below compares the change in home prices, adjusted for inflation, for various US cities. For example, the average USA home price has topped inflation by 238% since 1948. Why has there been such a wide trajectory in prices, and why have they proven so persistent?

Rising Yields Faily to Derail Stocks

This year, the stock market has risen significantly. Lingering worries about oil prices, inflation, the war with Iran, and the possibility of an AI bubble haven’t subsided. But the economy is expanding, corporate profits have been strong, and the S&P 500 Index set a new high last week, according to the Wall Street Journal.

All Gas, No Brakes: Profits Soar in Q2

In a solid earnings season, we’d generally expect S&P 500 companies to deliver double-digit profit growth, meaning earnings growth of at least 10% versus a year ago (20% tops). That’s not a hard-and-fast rule, but it provides a useful benchmark for evaluating the strength of a quarter.