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Mark Chandik

Jun 16, 2026

The Latest on Inflation

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provided investors with a modest sense of relief when it was released last Wednesday.

According to the BLS, headline CPI rose 0.5% in May and is up 4.2% compared to a year ago, accelerating from April’s 3.8% annual increase. The more encouraging news came from core CPI, which excludes the more volatile food and energy categories.

Core prices rose just 0.2% in May, helping to ease some inflation concerns. On an annual basis, core CPI increased 2.9%, ticking up slightly from 2.8% in April.

Rising energy and gasoline prices are the primary culprits behind the significant rise in the CPI. Let’s review Figure 1. Energy prices have surged. Outside of energy, price increases are somewhat elevated, but we aren’t seeing significant pressures in food or core inflation—all items except food and energy.

Bar chart of CPI annual change by category: All items 4.2%, Food 3.1%, Energy 23.5%, All items less food and energy 2.9%. Data source: U.S. BLS May 2026.
It’s not ideal, but for the most part, what’s happened to gasoline has yet to bleed into most everyday items.

Meanwhile, here’s one more look at two broad categories in the CPI. Shelter (housing, rent) is rising at about the rate it was in the late 2010s. But that’s not the case for core consumer goods—excluding food and energy—and services (excluding housing). They remain somewhat elevated.

Fig. 2: CPI annual changes 2016–2026 for Core Consumer Goods (red) and Services less Rent of Shelter (green). Red peaks ~12% in 2022 then drops to near 0% by 2024; green fluctuates around 2–6%, with a peak near 8% in 2023–2024; data note at bottom.
author avatar
Mark Chandik

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