US Exceptionalism

US Exceptionalism

Discussions of U.S. exceptionalism in the stock market stem from the consistent outperformance of major U.S. indexes compared to global markets. For example, over the past decade, the Global Dow is up about 103%, while the S&P 500 Index has risen by 180%,...
Debbie Downer

Debbie Downer

On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that the Consumer Sentiment Index for the U.S. fell to the second-lowest reading on record, with the mid-May level falling to 50.8 from April’s 52.2. “Tariffs were spontaneously mentioned by nearly three-quarters of...
Front-Running Tariffs Distort GDP

Front-Running Tariffs Distort GDP

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is the broadest measure of economic activity, fell at an annualized pace of 0.3%. Yet, a closer look reveals that the economy didn’t shrink in Q1. What happened?...
Trading on Headlines

Trading on Headlines

The graphic below chronicles trading in the S&P 500 Index following the late-day announcement on April 2, referred to as “Liberation Day” by the president, regarding reciprocal tariffs. What’s behind last week’s choppy action? Early in the week, investors...
Flexing Economic Muscles

Flexing Economic Muscles

As we approached the early April selloff, much of the data suggested that economic activity was expanding. Let’s examine two important pieces of data. Led by a 5.3% surge in auto sales, retail sales rose a strong 1.4% in March. While some buyers were hoping to jump in...