A Drama-Free Fed Meeting, Press Conference* and the Election

A Drama-Free Fed Meeting, Press Conference* and the Election

More about the asterisk in a moment, but first, let’s touch on the meat and potatoes of last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. It came as no surprise that the Fed reduced its key rate, the fed funds rate, by 25 basis points (bp, 1 bp = 0.01%) to a range of 4.50—4.75%....
A Robust GDP and Muddy Jobs Report

A Robust GDP and Muddy Jobs Report

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded at an annual pace of 2.8% in Q3, which was down from 3.0% in Q2. The broadest measure of U.S. economic activity matched the final report from the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model...
The Interest Rate Paradox

The Interest Rate Paradox

Last month, the Federal Reserve reduced its key interest rate, and the consensus suggested (and still suggests) that the Fed will cut rates two more times before the year ends. A closely watched tool from the CME Group is pricing in a quarter-point rate cut at the...
Happy Birthday

Happy Birthday

The bull market turned two years old last week. Since bottoming, the S&P 500 Index has climbed almost 64% (through 10/17/24). The index is up 22% from its early 2022 peak, according to data from the St. Louis Federal Reserve. Following the 2022 peak, the S&P...